fledgling klee: October 2012

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Political forecasting stirring up a storm

The presidential campaigns are continuing to wage an aggressive back and forth, especially in Ohio. But the devastating impact of Sandy will likely put a wrench in many East Coast residents' plans to vote, as well as the tallying of those votes. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

By Alan Boyle

Nationwide polls may portray the presidential campaign as a neck-and-neck horse race, but less conventional data-crunching methods spit out a different picture, with President Barack Obama edging out GOP challenger Mitt Romney.

One big variable remains to be factored in: the effect of Hurricane Sandy. And one big state that's been relatively unaffected by the storm holds the key to the outcome: Ohio.?"It's been that way for the entire election cycle," said David Rothschild, an expert on opinion modeling at Microsoft Research and Columbia University's Applied Statistics Center.

Rothschild, who lays out election forecasts at the Predictwise website and blogs about prediction science on The Signal at Yahoo, surveyed the state of the art this weekend at the New Horizons in Science symposium, presented as part of the ScienceWriters2012 conference.

In the final days of the campaign, the divergent spins on the election outlook have sparked a few fireworks. Statistician Nate Silver's analysis for The New York Times' Five Thirty Eight column, which has consistently favored Obama even as many others were reporting a tightening of the race, drew criticism from the National Review's Josh Jordan for including "a little bit too much hope?of an Obama victory against what appears to be a surge of Romney momentum."

This week, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough virtually called for Silver's pundit license to be revoked.?"Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're jokes," he said on "Morning Joe."

Economist Paul Krugman went to Silver's defense in his own column for the Times, decrying the "war on objectivity" and saying that "all the election modelers have been faithful to their models, letting the numbers fall where they may."

"This is really scary," Krugman wrote. "It means that if these people triumph, science ? or any kind of scholarship ? will become impossible. Everything must pass a political test; if it isn't what the right wants to hear, the messenger is subjected to a smear campaign."

Silver's analysis is based on a state-by-state assessment of polling data from multiple sources, translated into an electoral vote count. Political prediction markets, such as those studied by Rothschild, use a different method to come up with a surprisingly similar snapshot of the horse race.

The markets offer a glorified kind of gambling on political fortunes: The winner-take-all markets let players "invest" in the prospects of a particular candidate. If the candidate wins, the investor gets, say, $1 a share. If the candidate loses, the investor gets nothing. Leading up to Election Day, investors can buy or sell shares in candidates to match their expectations of success.

The shifting share prices reflect the perceived probability of success. For example, Intrade's market?sets the probability of Obama's re-election at 63 percent. The Iowa Electronic Markets?go with a little more than 63 percent, while the trading at?Betfair?puts the probability at?70 percent. That's in the same ballpark as Silver's 72.9 percent estimate.

IEM / Univ. of Iowa

A chart shows share values on the Iowa Electronic Markets in the winner-take-all market for the presidential popular vote. The blue line indicates Democratic share prices, while the red line indicates GOP share prices.

Intentions vs. expectations
What the prediction markets provide is a probability figure, not a vote share figure. It reflects expectations about a given outcome, just as the Vegas odds reflected the expectation that the Giants would win the World Series, even before they swept the Tigers. There was a chance all the way up to the final out that the Tigers could roar back and take four games in a row to win the series. But in this case, at least, the Vegas marketplace predicted the outcome.

So what's the success rate of prediction markets? How do surveys that gauge expectations perform, compared with traditional surveys that gauge what voters say they intend to do? That's where Rothschild's research comes in: He and a colleague, Penn economist Justin Wolfers, looked at the predictions produced by traditional polls ("For whom do you intend to vote?"), as opposed to less traditional surveys ("Whom do you expect to win?"), in 345 political races.

Most of the time, the predictions from the two types of forecasts were in agreement. But in those cases where the predictions were different, the expectation survey was right 76 percent of the time, while the traditional intention survey was right only 24 percent of the time.

Rothschild said the strength of expectation polls may lie in the fact that investors can absorb information from other sources to come up with a consensus that reflects the wisdom of crowds. "Asking people about expectations is equivalent to as if people went out to 10 random voters and reported the binary result," he said.

Based on the prediction markets, it's as if Obama is the favored team in the seventh game of the World Series. The betting odds have been in his favor for the past year ??even though there have been ups and downs, such as his slump in the first presidential debate. Now that all the debates are done, most of the uncertainty has been wrung out of the campaign.

"There's one more unexpected event: this hurricane," Rothschild said.

After the storm
Lots of prognosticators have pointed to the uncertainties raised by Hurricane Sandy. The conventional wisdom was that Romney would benefit from a long-recognized anti-incumbent effect in late pre-election polling, as well as a race-tightening effect. However, Sandy changes the calculus.

"Generally, natural disasters benefit incumbents," Rothschild said. There's a tendency to put politics aside, rally 'round the flag and let the president look presidential. (That effect can go negative if the disaster response doesn't go well, as President George W. Bush found out in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.) Even before the storm hit, Scarborough said Romney's momentum could stall in Sandy's aftermath. "It changes everything with a week to go," he said.

There's already some evidence that the rally effect has kicked in: For example, today New Jersey's Republican governor, Chris Christie, said hat Obama's response to the storm crisis was "outstanding" and that he didn't "give a damn about Election Day." Christie is due to tour devastated areas with the president on Wednesday.

The catastrophic aftermath of the storm may affect early voting as well as the Election Day turnout in places like New York and New Jersey. That could cut into the Democratic vote. Research has shown that obstacles to voting tend to hit Democrats harder than Republicans. But in Sandy's case, that statistical effect may not be critical because those states are relatively safe for Obama.

Sandy's effect may be more crucial hundreds of miles from the worst of the storm, in Ohio. For the past year, Ohio has been the "flip state" in Rothschild's calculations. Neither candidate has a clear path to victory unless he wins Ohio's electoral votes, Rothschild said. That's one reason why Romney was the headliner for a storm-relief rally in Ohio today ? and why Vice President Joe Biden and former President Bill Clinton are canvassing the state while Obama tours the hurricane zone.

Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney reacts as he accepts a food donation from a supporter during a storm-relief event in Kettering, Ohio.

How will it all turn out? There are lots of statistical models floating around, and no matter which way it turns out, some will score a home run while others will strike out. In addition to the political prediction markets we've been talking about, here are a few more forecasts to watch:

We'll be talking about the scientific angles to the political campaign at 9 p.m. ET Wednesday on?"Virtually Speaking Science,"?an hourlong talk show airing on?BlogTalkRadio?and in the?Second Life virtual world. My guest will be?Shawn Lawrence Otto, a founder of ScienceDebate.org and author of "Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America."

Turn to?NBC Politics?for the full story about the final week of the presidential campaign, and keep a watch on?our coverage of Hurricane Sandy's aftermath?as well.

Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor and vice president of the Council for the Advancement for Science Writing, which presented the New Horizons in Science symposium. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's?Facebook page, following?@b0yle on Twitter?and adding the?Cosmic Log page?to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out?"The Case for Pluto,"?my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

Source: http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/30/14809227-political-forecasts-stir-up-a-storm?lite

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During IVF, sex and satisfaction can suffer | ScienceBlog.com

An Indiana University study has found that women undergoing in-vitro fertilization report that the process of infertility treatment has many negative impacts on their sexual relationship with their partner. Little attention has been given to the sexual dynamics of couples as they navigate infertility and treatments such as IVF, despite the important role that sex plays in a couple?s attempt to conceive a child.

?Sex is for pleasure and for reproduction, but attention to pleasure often goes by the wayside for people struggling to conceive,? said Nicole Smith, a doctoral student with the Center for Sexual Health Promotion at the IU School of Public Health-Bloomington. Smith is conducting the study in collaboration with Jody Lyne? Madeira, associate professor in the IU Maurer School of Law.

?With assisted reproductive technologies (ART), couples often report that they feel like a science experiment, as hormones are administered and sex has to be planned and timed. It can become stressful and is often very unromantic and regimented; relationships are known to suffer during the process.?

This study, which is one of the first in the United States to examine women?s sexual experiences while undergoing assisted reproductive technologies, used the Sexual Functioning Questionnaire to assess the impact of IVF treatment on couples? sexual experiences. Compared to a sample of healthy women, women undergoing IVF reported significantly less sexual desire, interest in sexual activity and satisfaction with their sexual relationship. They had more difficulty with orgasm and were more likely to report sexual problems such as vaginal pain and dryness. Similar to emotional and relationship challenges associated with assisted reproductive technologies, the sexual problems intensified as a couple?s use of ART proceeded.

When couples meet with their physicians, their sex life might not top the list of issues they want to discuss, either because of unease talking about the subject or simply because they have so many other important issues to discuss. Still, Smith and Madeira say, the doctor-patient relationship is key, and couples can be told up front about the potential sexual side effects and resources that can help. If they have issues with dryness, for example, they could be counseled on remedies such as purchasing lubricant or other sexual enhancement products. In addition to referring couples to mental health counselors, reproductive endocrinologists could also refer them to sex therapists.

?There?s just a dearth of knowledge on how infertility affects sexual behavior,? Madeira said. ?The focus is more likely to be on the social and support dimensions of the relationship, but sex is a big part of that. Just letting patients know they aren?t alone in this would be helpful.?

If more information about sexual challenges becomes available, couples might find it on their own.

?Women interested in ART are generally well-educated and tend to spend time researching these issues,? Madeira said. ?They would be very responsive to this information, and proactive.?

The study involved 270 women who completed an online questionnaire; interviews with 127 men and women using IVF to try to conceive; and interviews with 70 professionals, including physicians, nurses, mental health experts and other providers who work directly with patients.

IVF is a procedure in which mature eggs are retrieved from a woman?s ovaries and fertilized by sperm in a lab, forming embryos. The embryo(s) are then implanted in the woman?s uterus. It is considered an effective procedure but one that is used after couples try several other less invasive procedures. By the time couples begin IVF, they might have been trying to conceive for many years. Nine percent of the women in their study had been through five IVF cycles, which could take at least a year.

Here are some of their other findings:

Women who reported being sexually active with a partner in the past month also were more likely to engage in masturbation and report fewer sexual problems.
The women reported similar problems with sexual function regardless of the type or source of infertility involved: male factor, female factor, or both male and female factor.
Hormonal treatments used in assisted reproductive technologies likely affect women?s sexual experiences and pain, but these effects are not as well understood and receive less priority than other conditions, such as heart disease and cancer.

Smith will discuss ?Utilizing Assisted Reproductive Technologies and the Impact on Sexual Function: Validating the SFQ Among a Sample of Infertile Women,? at 7:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Oct. 30. The research was supported in part by the Kinsey Institute for Research in Sex, Gender and Reproduction, the IU School of Public Health-Bloomington, and the Faculty Research Support Program in IU?s Office of the Vice Provost for Research.

Source: http://scienceblog.com/57380/during-ivf-sex-and-satisfaction-can-suffer/

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9 colorful and endangered tree-dwelling tarantulas discovered in Brazil

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Arboreal tarantulas are known from a few tropical places in Asia, Africa, South and Central America and the Caribbean. These tarantulas generally have a lighter build, thinner bodies and longer legs, better suited for their habitat. They have increased surface area at the ends of their legs, allowing them to better climb different surfaces, while their light build makes them more agile.

Their core area is the Amazon, from where most of the species are known and normally very common, living in the jungle or even in house's surroundings. Now, nine new species were described from Central and Eastern Brazil, including four of the smallest arboreal species ever recorded.

The study was performed by Dr Rog?rio Bertani, who is a tarantula specialist and a researcher at the Instituto Butantan in Sao Paulo, Brazil. His results have been published in the open access journal ZooKeys.

"Instead of the seven species formerly known in the region, we now have sixteen", said Dr Bertani. "In a resurrected genus with a mysterious single species known from 1841, we have now five species". "These are the smallest arboreal tarantulas in the world, and their analysis suggests the genus to be very old, so they can be considered relicts of a formerly more widely distributed taxon".

Other discoveries include new species of tarantulas living inside bromeliads. "Only a single species had been known to live exclusively inside these plants, and now we have another that specialized in bromeliads as well". A further species was found at the top of table mountains where trees are rare. "This species also inhabits bromeliads, one of the few places for an arboreal tarantula to live that offer water and a retreat against the intense sunlight" he says.

The discovery of all these new species outside the Amazon was unexpected and illustrates how little we know of the fauna surrounding us, even from hot spots of threatened biodiversity like the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest and the Cerrado (a kind of savannah vegetation). These species are highly endemic and the regions where they live are suffering high pressure from human activities. Therefore, studies for their conservation are necessaries. Furthermore, all these new species are colorful, which could attract the interest for capturing them for the pet trade, constituting another threat.

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Bertani R (2012) Revision, cladistic analysis and biogeography of Typhochlaena C. L. Koch, 1850, Pachistopelma Pocock, 1901 and Iridopelma Pocock, 1901 (Araneae, Theraphosidae, Aviculariinae). ZooKeys 230: 1-94. doi: 10.3897/zookeys.230.3500

Pensoft Publishers: http://www.pensoft.net

Thanks to Pensoft Publishers for this article.

This press release was posted to serve as a topic for discussion. Please comment below. We try our best to only post press releases that are associated with peer reviewed scientific literature. Critical discussions of the research are appreciated. If you need help finding a link to the original article, please contact us on twitter or via e-mail.

This press release has been viewed 9 time(s).

Source: http://www.labspaces.net/124919/__colorful_and_endangered_tree_dwelling_tarantulas_discovered_in_Brazil

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Romney to Business Crowd: Obama Sees You As an "Evil" | Mother ...

Ever since I revealed Mitt Romney's 47 percent rant, tips and tapes have come through the transom?including this and this. And another source who asked not to be identified just sent me an audio recording of a private Mitt Romney fundraiser from earlier this year. At this event, Romney didn't decry half of the nation, but he and Ann Romney each expressed disdain for President Barack Obama, with the Republican presidential candidate asserting that Obama considers businesspeople "a necessary evil" and his wife suggesting that the president was not a "grown-up."

On March 27, as Romney was still fighting for the Republican presidential nomination, he and Ann attended a fundraiser in Irvine, California, at the home of Michelle and David Horowitz, a former cement business owner who runs a private equity fund. The $1,000-per-plate outdoors luncheon (or $2,500 for those wanting to participate in a photo reception with Romney) drew much of Orange County's Republican elite.

Romney mainly delivered his standard stump speech to the 100-person-plus crowd, and he took only three questions. During the more intimate $50,000-per-plate 47 percent fundraiser?in May, Romney didn't give much of a speech, and he spent most of his time with these superdonors responding to their queries. (The bigger contribution apparently earns donors more quality time with the candidate.) But at the Horowitzes' home in the exclusive Shady Canyon neighborhood, Romney did make several revealing comments.

After being introduced, the Republican candidate noted that he had been pushed into his second campaign for president by his wife:

David, you mentioned Ann, and the fact that she insisted that I get in this race. That is the truth. I wanted to talk it over with her. And every time I'd say, "Let's talk about the pros and cons," she'd say, "Talk to the hand, talk to the hand. We're just doing this. We've got to do it." And so she absolutely insisted that I get in this because she was convinced that I was the only one that had the capacity to beat President Obama.

Romney then asked Ann to say a few words, and she explained that she had been so insistent because she did not consider Obama to be a "grown-up":

You know?the ship's going over the waterfall, it's almost there. And we look what's happening in Greece, and we look what's happening around the world, we look what's happening internationally. This is a frightening world, and we need a grown-up, and we need someone that understands the economy. So I'm glad?Mitt is grown up to you all.

(This remark was not a one-off. In August, Ann Romney, talking about the gender gap, said, "I'm hearing from so many women that may not have considered voting for a Republican before that said, it's time for the grown-up to come.")

Romney's pitch to this well-heeled O.C. crowd was heavy on celebrating entrepreneurs. He claimed that Obama and his supporters were opposed to success, declaring, "Heaven help us if we have people who try to divide America between those that have succeeded and those that haven't." And Romney, who possesses not one but two graduate degrees from Harvard, blasted Obama's economic policies for being crafted by Ivy League experts:

What they have in their mind is a vision of America dominated by government, by individuals they respect, people like themselves: highly educated, spent a lot of time in the faculty club at Harvard, and they believe they can guide the economy better than can individuals all pursuing their own dream. It does make sense, after all, that smart people, bureaucrats can sit down and do a better job deciding which type of energy company to invest in, which type of technology to invest in, what kind of health care you should have, who's your provider?all these smart people could do a better job. It makes all the sense in the world as opposed to saying individuals all doing whatever the heck they want, some without education, can go off and build businesses and succeed or fail. And yet that of course, that latter model, is the only one in the history of the world that's ever worked to lift people out of poverty and create permanent prosperity.

Romney repeated his usual found-to-be-false talking points: Obamacare is a government takeover; if it stands, half of the US economy will be "controlled by government." He accused the president of conspiring to cause high energy prices. ("Look, these guys are trying to drive up the price of energy in this country in order for solar and wind to be able to be more economic.")

He dramatically cast the election as a black-and-white contest with Obama waging a "war on business and economic freedom." Romney repeatedly professed his "love" for business and, in particular, the business people before him. Using supercharged rhetoric, he said that Obama had a beef against such people and viewed them as "a necessary evil?and maybe not so necessary":

I'm convinced that if this president is reelected, the war on business and economic freedom will continue. I don't think the president likes you very much. If you're in business, I think he looks at you as a necessary evil?and maybe not so necessary. I love you, all right? I love, I love business. I love people who employ other people, who have dreams and ideas, and are willing to start enterprises, and put people to work?all good things grow from successful enterprises. Businesses?good jobs come from good businesses.

Romney went on to bemoan the fact that some businesses preferred to set up shop in China than the United States, but without mentioning that this is often because China has low wages and weak labor rights and environmental protections:

When I heard the head of Coca-Cola say that the business environment in America is less hospitable than the business environment in China, I knew we had a problem. I want to make sure that America has the most attractive business conditions in the world?that every entrepreneur once again says, "I want to be an American." Whether it's energy or regulation or tax policy or labor policy or legal policy or health care policy?I want America to be the best place for business.

This seemed a clear indication that Romney would place workplace conditions, environmental protections, and other safeguards a far second to industry imperatives. Moments later, the crowd applauded him enthusiastically.

During the brief Q&A, Romney hailed fracking and denounced the new START treaty Obama negotiated with the Russians as kowtowing to Moscow (though 71 senators voted for its ratification). But perhaps his most heartfelt remark came when he was concluding his talk and told these donors, "I want to let you go back to work so you can earn more money to give to me."

You can listen to the full tape here.

UPDATE:?A source who attended the event says there were over 400 people in attendance.

Source: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/10/romney-fundraiser-obama-business-evil

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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup | Watts Up With That?

Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project

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Quote of the Week: ?It is in the admission of ignorance and the admission of uncertainty that there is a hope for the continuous motion of human beings in some direction that doesn?t get confined, permanently blocked, as it has so many times before in various periods in the history of man.? Richard Feynman [H/t Roger Cohen]

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Number of the Week: 70%

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THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

APS: In 2007 the American Physical Society (APS) issued an absolutist statement on Climate Change that greatly disturbed a number of its senior fellows. In 2009, about 300 physicists petitioned the APS petitioned to modify the statement. The statement was not modified, but augmented with a lengthy addition. The turmoil continues. Roger Cohen, a Fellow of the Society has posted on the web site of Anthony Watts his expression of dissatisfaction with the APS. This has led to an exchange with Warren S. Warren. The exchange is an excellent read on what is wrong when a few in a science society take an absolutist position concerning a subject that requires open investigation and debate. Please see links under APS Frontline.

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PBS Frontline: The Public Broadcasting System aired a special on its ?Frontline? series titled ?Climate of Doubt.? The first part consisted of interviews and clips of those who express skepticism to the view that human emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), especially carbon dioxide (CO2), are causing unprecedented and dangerous global warming. This was followed by interviews with alarmists who were presented as the mainstream scientists. Certainly the alarmists are mainstream in that they are the ones who receive extensive government support. Later, in private comments, Fred Singer thought his interview was well presented, especially when compared with presentations in the past. The views of others varied. Roy Spencer was disturbed because part of his head and comments were used in the trailer, but he was not interviewed for the program.

Perhaps more revealing of the entire episode was a Live Chat on Thursday afternoon with those who organized the program. They were the film?s producer, Catherine Upin, the correspondent, John Hockenberry, and the ?resident expert?, Elizabeth Kolbert, of the New Yorker. Prior to the chat, SEPP submitted three questions on topics covered. One was the frequently cited 97 to 98% percent of climate scientists ?consensus? claims, which are based on extensively manipulated of opinion polls, making the results trivial. The second was on the recent statement from HadCRU that there has been no appreciable increase in temperatures for 16 years, a period in which the models project an increase of about 0.3 deg C (over 0.5 deg F). What would it take for journalists to realize there are major problems with the climate models and the 90 to 99% certainty is based on opinion not rigorous science? The third question focused on the constant, largely unsubstantiated claims that oil companies are funding skeptics and the failure of journalists to report the extent of government funding of the alarmists.

During the Live Chat, SEPP submitted four comments. One on the burden of proof ? climate alarmists have not performed adequate testing of a hypothesis on CO2 caused global warming. A second challenging a statement that the poll appearing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science was peer reviewed, but it is trivial nonetheless. The third comment challenged the ?resident expert? Elizabeth Kolbert who stated: ?A very interesting look at the connections between the tobacco industry and the climate ?skeptic? industry can be found in the book Merchants of Doubt.? The response challenged Ms. Kolbert to read and comment on Fred Singer?s rebuttal to this book?s ad hominem attacks.

But most revealing was a comment by correspondent John Hockenberry:

?The saddest thing about this story is that we heard mostly absolute certainty and dismissive confidence among our skeptic friends while it was our scientist friends were quick to say that doubt is how science is conducted, people questioning each other?s work all the time. The doubt of the scientists was always real but was always about how much we know about the planet and need to know not about the trend of global warming.

Their search for truth and quest to challenge each other?s findings was exploited as ?debate? and ?uncertainty? by people in the political world. In some ways the scientists didn?t have a chance in this battle? but that is my personal opinion and some of our scientists would not have agreed with me.?

To which SEPP inquired: did you ever ask the climate establishment scientists why the IPCC declared a 90 to 99% certainty in the models and their findings? The 90 to 99% certainty was in the EPA endangerment finding and was accepted by the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia.

Given the slow pace, and the long pauses in the program, it was obvious tough questions of these global warming / climate change expert journalists would not be aired. Also, it was apparent the opinion polls weigh heavily on these expert journalists.

The saddest thing about this story is the blatant irresponsibility of PBS to understand the story. Please see links under PBS Frontline.

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ADDENDUM: Months ago Patrick Michaels announced he and a few collogues are preparing a point by point rebuttal to the report by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): Global Climate Change Impacts in the US (2009). Along with the 2007 report be the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and a report by National Research Council, the USGCRP report provide the foundation for the EPA questionable finding that GHG, particularly CO2, emissions endanger human life and welfare. Now alarmists are outraged that the advance copies of the new report, ADDENDUM: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States looks like the previous report. The CATO imprint on the back cover is apparently overlooked by the alarmists. Please see link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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US Overtaking Saudi Arabia in Oil? Some analysts are projecting that the US will overtake Saudi Arabia in oil production in the near future ? around 2020. Others object to these statements stating they are based on statistical sleights of hand. Whether or not the US (or North America) overtakes Saudi Arabia is not that important. What is important is that thanks to modern hydraulic fracturing of dense shale and offshore drilling (whenever permitted), oil production in the US is expanding greatly. Since production costs in the US remain high, there is doubt if the era of ?cheap oil? will return in the near future. Oil is traded on the global market, and US production influences that market but does not determine it. The lower cost producers that have significant capability of expanding are more influential determinants, such as Saudi Arabia.

Some economists are questioning the belief that affordable energy is vital for economic growth. Certainly, affordable energy is not a sufficient condition for economic growth. That is, other conditions, or components, are needed. For example, oil is heavily subsidized in Egypt and Iran, but they are not experiencing significant growth. But under proper conditions, affordable energy can promote growth. For example, affordable energy is vital to modern agriculture. Modern fertilizers need oil or natural gas feedstock. Areas of the US where natural gas is low cost and appears to be affordable for a long term are experiencing significant growth, which the country as a whole is not.

External costs are other complications added by economists to the issue. Sometimes these are real, such as in cities in the US in the 20s. But, economic growth allowed the country to devote significant resources to clean up these external costs. Now, in the US external costs are largely exaggerated, such as by the EPA. Please see links Energy Issues ? US and Articles # 2 and # 3.

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EPA on the Verge: A number of commentators, including Fred Singer, are expressing concern about the plans of EPA immediately after the election on November 6. It is clear that EPA has held back proposed regulations that are highly controversial. Please see Article #1, #3 and #5, and links under EPA and other Regulators on the March

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Oh? Mann: Michael Mann has sued the National Review Online and the Competitive Enterprise Institute for defamation and ?intentional infliction of emotional distress.? (from the Washington Post.). The complaint states that: ?? Mr. Man and his colleagues were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.? and ?? personal defamation of a Nobel prize recipient.?

The award was given to the IPCC, not personally to Mr. Mann, who was a participant in the IPCC. Some may consider the distinction to be just a technicality, just as some consider the body of research on climate history that was buried Mr. Mann?s hockey-stick as just a technicality. Mr. Mann may find that he will face questions that are a bit more strident than asked by the Penn State officials who he claims exonerated his research. Please see links under Oh Mann!

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Storm?s A?coming: According to forecasts, the Mid-Atlantic States are about to be hit by a large storm with low category 1 hurricane winds. (Category 1 wind speed 75?95 mph (65?82 kts, 33?42 m/s), http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_Hurricane_Scale). The moon is almost full, so tidal areas may experience a strong storm surge on top of spring (flood) tides which could result in significant coastal erosion and flooding. Already some alarmists are associating the storm with global warming / climate change. Please see links under Changing Weather and Below the Bottoms Line.

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Amplifications and Corrections: Tom Sheahen correctly stated that the conversion for PgC/yr to Billions of tonnes of CO2 per year is by multiplying by 3.67. TWTW left out the Billions.

Clyde Spencer correctly suggested that TWTW should not use the term ocean acidity unless the pH is actually below 7. This will be followed to the extent possible.

Norman Kalmanovitch pointed out that the period of no warming in the HadCRU data, as stated in the article by David Rose, started in the year the Kyoto Protocol became effective, 1997. The goal of the Protocol was to stop global warming and it did! If one jumps to causal relationships, one could state the Kyoto Protocol was the most effective international agreement ever.

TWTW incorrectly quoted Angeline Purdy of the Department of Justice as stating: ?The models have been validated.? The quote came from imperfect personal notes. A subsequent check of the transcript (which is not available on the web) failed to reveal such a direct statement. Ms. Purdy argued that the models have been validated, at length, but did not make such as simple statement. TWTW will endeavor not to make such a mistake in the future.

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Number of the Week: 70%. According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, in the US the cost of natural gas is about 70% of the cost of manufacturing nitrogen fertilizer. As the cost of this component comes down, its percentage share will come down as well.

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ARTICLES:

For the numbered articles below please see this week?s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.

1. Obama?s EPA Plans for 2013

By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Oct 25, 2012

http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/10/obamas_epa_plans_for_2013.html

2. Cheap Natural Gas Gives New Hope to the Rust Belt

By Ben Casselman and Russell Gold, WSJ, Oct 24, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444549204578020602281237088.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0

3. The Real Stimulus: Low-Cost Natural Gas

The impact of the U.S. energy revolution is only beginning. It is already providing a foundation for a domestic renaissance in manufacturing.

By Daniel Yergin, WSJ, Oct 22, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444734804578062331199029850.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopOpinion

4. The Obama Storm Tax

The EPA turns its unsubtle charms on cities. Get ready to pay.

Editorial, WSJ, Oct 22, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444799904578052673425236066.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_AboveLEFTTop

5.EPA, Water and Value for Tax Money

By Grant Weaver, Letter, WSJ, Oct 24, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204425904578074911131525782.html?mod=ITP_opinion_1

[SEPP Comment: All too often, in its edicts, EPA has no concept of cost.]

###################################################

NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Science: Is the Sun Rising?

NASA Study Using Cluster Reveals New Insights Into Solar Wind

By Karen C. Fox for Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt MD (SPX) Oct 25, 2012

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/NASA_Study_Using_Cluster_Reveals_New_Insights_Into_Solar_Wind_999.html

Climategate Continued

Hiding the Decline

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 26, 2012]

http://www.bishop-hill.net/hiding-the-decline/

[SEPP Comment: Announcing Montford?s new book on the Climategate affair.]

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Review of Cato?s ADDENDUM: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 26, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/26/review-of-catos-addendum-global-climate-change-impacts-in-the-united-states/

No Underlying Global Warming in Recent Years

By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Oct 23, 2012

http://www.thegwpf.org/no-underlying-global-warming-in-recent-years/

Defending the Orthodoxy

EU on track for Kyoto and 2020 emissions targets

By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Oct 24, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/EU_on_track_for_Kyoto_and_2020_emissions_targets_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Longer recessions result in fewer emissions.]

From Discovery, To Solution, To Evolution: Observing Earth?s Ozone Layer

By Laura Betz for Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt MD (SPX), Oct 26, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/From_Discovery_To_Solution_To_Evolution_Observing_Earths_Ozone_Layer_999.html

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Polar Bear Propaganda in Context: A Useful Tool for the Promotion of Environmental Hysteria and Politicized Science

By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Oct 26, 2012

http://drtimball.com/2012/it-occurred-to-me-global-warming-is-another-undelivered-government-promise-polar-bear-propaganda-in-context-a-useful-tool-for-the-promotion-of-environmental-hysteria-and-politicized-science/

?It occurred to me ?.. ? Global warming is another undelivered government promise.

[SEPP Comment: Exposing some of the fears instilled by the global warming alarmists.]

A scientist?s open mind snaps shut

By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Oct 22, 2012

http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2012/10/a-scientist-s-open-mind-snaps-shut

Climate and State High Temperature Records?Where?s the Beef?

By Steve Goreham, Weissman Report, Oct 24, 2012

http://weissmanreport.com/2011-08-04-18-06-26/item/2321-climate-and-state-high-temperature-records%E2%80%94where%E2%80%99s-the-beef?

IPCC Author Becomes Green Party Apparatchik

A lead author of the IPCC?s ?hard science? section is a Green Party candidate and deputy leader.

By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Oct 26, 2012

http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2012/10/26/ipcc-author-becomes-green-party-apparatchik/

Overrated: Nicholas Stern

By Myron Ebell, Standpoint, Nov 2012 [H/t Cooler Heads]

http://standpointmag.co.uk/overrated-november-12-nicholas-stern-myron-ebell-stern-review-climate-change

[SEPP Comment: A poor economic analysis continues to distort the current economic picture ? a classic example of what is wrong with the logical fallacy of the appeal to authority.]

Questioning European Green

Lies, Damn Lies And Green Statistics

By Daniel Wetzel, Die Welt, Oct 25, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.thegwpf.org/lies-damn-lies-and-green-statistics/

Almost all predictions about the expansion and cost of German wind turbines and solar panels have turned out to be wrong ? at least by a factor of two, sometimes by a factor of five.

What Germany can learn from the Nordic Energiewende

By Paul Hockenos, European Energy Review, Oct 23, 2012

http://www.europeanenergyreview.eu/site/pagina.php?email=ken@haapala.com&id_mailing=320&toegang=320722549d1751cf3f247855f937b982&id=3910

[SEPP Comment: The integration of the electricity production and transmission is not easy and requires flexibility.]

Another cost of shale gas denial

By Nick Grealy, No Hot Air, Oct 23, 2012

http://www.nohotair.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2667:the-other-cost-of-shale-gas-denial&catid=172&Itemid=170

Cost of CO2 rules risk more UK energy price hikes

UK carbon costs could top 2 bln pounds in 2013

* Environmental costs to make up bigger portion of bills

By Susanna Twidale, Reuters, Oct 26, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/26/britian-power-carbon-idUSL5E8LQANM20121026

Questioning Green Elsewhere

Time to embrace climate heresy?

By Des Moore, Quadrant, Oct 24, 2012

http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2012/10/time-to-embrace-climate-heresy

?Sustainability?: Politics Above Both Science and Economics

By Marita Noon, Energy Tribune, Oct 26, 2012

http://www.energytribune.com/64049/sustainability-politics-above-both-science-and-economics

Expanding the Orthodoxy

Climate change threatens marine environment in the Baltic Sea

By Staff Writers, Gothenburg, Sweden (SPX), Oct 23, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Climate_change_threatens_marine_environment_in_the_Baltic_Sea_999.html

[SEPP Comment: More research needed.]

Helping North America?s marine protected areas adapt to a changing climate

By Staff Writers, Tampa FL (SPX), Oct 26, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Helping_North_Americas_marine_protected_areas_adapt_to_a_changing_climate_999.html

[SEPP Comment: They have been adapting to changing climate for millions of years.]

Problems in the Orthodoxy

EU fails to agree Kyoto negotiating position

By Dave Keating, European Voice, Oct 26, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/2012/october/eu-fails-to-agree-kyoto-negotiating-position/75527.aspx

Seeking a Common Ground

What is Wrong with Embellishing Science?

By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Oct 26, 2012

http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2012/10/what-is-wrong-with-embellishing-science.html

[SEPP Comment: It is becoming more obvious that constant exaggeration is not working.]

Italian seismologists: guilty(?)

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc, Oct 23, 2012

http://judithcurry.com/2012/10/23/italian-seismologists-guilty/#more-10268

Italian scientists sentenced to jail in quake trial

By Staff Writers, L?Aquila, Italy (AFP), Oct 22, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Italy_scientists_sentenced_to_jail_in_quake_trial_999.html

APS Frontline

More turmoil at the American Physical Society over their statement on the global warming issues

By Roger Cohen, posted by Anthony Watts, Oct 22, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/22/more-turmoil-at-the-american-physical-society-over-global-warming-issue/

The APS Topical Group on the Physics of Climate: reply to Roger Cohen

By Warren S. Warren, WUWT, Oct 24, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/24/the-aps-topical-group-on-the-physics-of-climate-reply-to-roger-cohen/

Reply to Warren Warren

By Roger Cohen, WUWT, Oct 25, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/25/reply-to-warren-warren/

PBS Frontline

Climate of Doubt about PBS?s Objectivity

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 24, 2012

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/10/climate-of-doubt-about-pbss-objectivity/

Heartland comments on FRONTLINE ?Climate of Doubt?

By Joe Bast, WUWT, Oct 24, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/24/heartland-comments-on-frontline-climate-of-doubt/

The ?Media Academic Complex? on display at PBS tonight

By Christopher Horner, WUWT, Oct 23, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/23/the-media-academic-complex-on-display-at-pbs-tonight/

PBS Frontline: Climate of Doubt

By Lubos Motl, Reference Frame, Oct 25, 2012

http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/10/pbs-frontline-climate-of-doubt.html#more

Climate of Doubt

Live Chat, Oct 25, 2012,

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/environment/climate-of-doubt/live-chat-2-p-m-et-thursday-inside-the-climate-wars/

Why did PBS FRONTLINE electronically alter the signature of one of the world?s most distinguished Physicists in their report ?Climate of Doubt??

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 25, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/25/why-did-pbs-frontline-electronically-alter-the-signature-of-one-of-the-worlds-most-distinguished-physicists-in-their-report-climate-of-doubt/

Communicating Better to the Public ? Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Scientists Denounce Dubious Climate Study by Insurer

By Axel Bojanowski, Spiegel, Oct 23, 2012 [H/t ICECAP]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/scientists-denounce-dubious-climate-study-by-insurer-munich-re-a-862857.html

Americans use more efficient and renewable energy technologies

Anne M Stark for LLNL News, Livermore CA (SPX), Oct 26, 2012

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Americans_use_more_efficient_and_renewable_energy_technologies_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Higher gasoline prices and the prolonged recession also contribute to less energy use. Compared to that, the increase in renewable use is almost insignificant.]

Communicating Better to the Public ? Make things up.

Oysters? future imperiled as oceans turn more acidic

?Going to be winners and losers ? We?ll have to adapt what we?re eating?

By Katharine Gammon, MSNBC, Oct 11, 2012 [H/t Gordon Fulks]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49378149/ns/us_news-environment/t/oysters-future-imperiled-oceans-turn-more-acidic/#.UIm3YcU1_cg

[SEPP Comment: The upwelling mentioned in the article is a natural process. The oceans are not turning acidic.]

Climate linked to conflict in East Africa, study finds

By Jon Bardin, LA Times, Oct 22, 2012

http://www.latimes.com/news/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-climate-change-linked-to-conflict-in-east-africa-20121022,0,1078149.story?track=rss

Contrary To What You Hear, Global Warming Has Been Good To Africa

By James Taylor, Forbes, Oct 25, 2012

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2012/10/25/contrary-to-what-you-hear-global-warming-has-been-good-to-africa/

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above. It was during a period of cooling that the Sahara began expanding about 8000 to 5000 years ago.]

Changing Weather

Frankenstorm Sandy Approaches

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 26, 2012

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/10/frankenstorm-sandy-approaches/

Hurricane Sandy (Atlantic Ocean)

NASA Sees Hurricane Sandy as the ?Bride of Frankenstorm? Approaching U.S. East Coast

By Rob Gutro, Hal Pierce, & Marshall Shepherd, Press Release, NASA, Oct 26, 2012 [H/t WUWT]

http://www1.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012_Sandy.html

Monster Halloween Storm in the cards ? second year in a row

By Joseph D?Aleo, ICECAP, Oct 25, 2012

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/monster_halloween_storm_in_the_cards_second_year_in_a_row1/

Where did that El Nino go? Wiped out by unprecedented cool shift?

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 25, 2012

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/10/where-did-that-el-nino-go-wiped-out-by-unprecedented-cool-shift/#more-24435

UK experiences ?weirdest? weather

By Roger Harrabin, BBC, Oct 18, 2012 [H/t Rob Sheldon]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19995084

[SEPP Comment: Could it be that new schemes for flood defenses generate more demands for these defenses?]

Heatwave kills thousands of birds ? this was climate change in 1932

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 23, 2012

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/10/heatwave-kills-thousands-of-birds-this-was-climate-change-in-1932/#more-24413

Changing Sea Ice

Opposite Behaviors? Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks, Antarctic Grows

By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Oct 23, 2012 [H/t Anne Debeil]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/10/121023172212.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Ftop_news%2Ftop_environment+%28ScienceDaily%3A+Top+News+?+Top+Environment%29

[SEPP Comment: Lack of uniformity is not a sufficient reason to dismiss global warming. But the lack of uniformity was one reason the IPCC dismissed the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age.]

Antarctic weight loss seems to be in the eye of the beholder

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 22, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/22/antarctica-weight-loss-program-seems-to-be-slowing/

New understanding of Antarctic?s weight-loss

By Staff Writers, Newcastle UK (SPX), Oct 23, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/New_understanding_of_Antarctics_weight_loss_999.html

Changing Earth

2012 Antarctic Ozone Hole Second Smallest in 20 Years

By Staff Writers, Greenbelt MD (SPX) Oct 25, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/2012_Antarctic_Ozone_Hole_Second_Smallest_in_20_Years_999.html

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

Rice agriculture accelerates global warming

By Staff Writers, Davis CA (SPX), Oct 25, 2012

http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Rice_agriculture_accelerates_global_warming_999.html

Overall, the rice paddy experiments revealed that increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere boosted rice yields by 24.5 percent and methane emissions by 42.2 percent, increasing the amount of methane emitted per kilo of rice.

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC

For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org

How Earth?s Coral Reefs Respond to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment

Reference: Hughes, T.P., Baird, A.H., Dinsdale, E.A., Moltschaniwskyj, N.A., Pratchett, M.S., Tanner, J.E. and Willis, B.L. 2012. Assembly rules of reef corals are flexible along a steep climatic gradient. Current Biology 22: 736-741.

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/oct/23oct2012a2.html

[SEPP Comment: Life is flexible, not fixed.]

2000 Years of Extra-Tropical Northern Hemispheric Temperatures

Reference: Christiansen, B. and Ljungqvist, F.C. 2012. The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability. Climate of the Past 8: 765-786.

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/oct/23oct2012a3.html

Environmental Change and Potential Trophic Mismatches

Reference: Appelhans, Y.S., Thomsen, J., Pansch, C., Melzner, F. and Wahl, M. 2012. Sour times: seawater acidification effects on growth, feeding behavior and acid-base status of Asterias rubens and Carcinus maenas. Marine Ecology Progress Series 459: 85-97.

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/oct/24oct2012a1.html

The Impact of Atmospheric Aerosols on North Atlantic Climate

Reference: Booth, B.B.B., Dunstone, N.J., Halloran, P.R., Andrews, T. and Bellouin, N. 2012. Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. Nature 484: 228-232.

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/oct/24oct2012a2.html

[SEPP Comment: Questioning the certainty of IPPC?s 90 to 99 % certainty.]

The Political Games Continue

US presidential debates? great unmentionable: climate change

No mention of global warming for the first time since Congress was briefed on the threat in 1988

By Suzanne Goldenberg, Guardian, UK, Oct 23, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/oct/23/us-president-debates-climate-change

Presidential candidates right to ignore climate change

By Tom Harris, Canada Free Press, Oct 23, 2012

http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/50497

Obama energy team circulates memo to greens on climate

By Ben Geman, The Hill, Oct 23, 2012

http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/263339-memo-to-activists-were-talking-about-climate-

Will The Election Continue To Give Our Fossil Energy Industries A Big Bird?

By Larry Bell, Forbes, Oct 23, 2012

http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2012/10/23/will-the-election-continue-to-give-our-fossil-energy-industries-a-big-bird/

Litigation Issues

Legal Liability for Bad Scientific Forecasts in the United States

By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Oct 24, 2012

http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2012/10/legal-liability-for-bad-scientific.html

Mischaracterizations of the L?Aquila Lawsuit Verdict

By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Oct 22, 2012

http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2012/10/mischaracterizations-of-laquila-lawsuit.html

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

Pollution tax stokes Australian inflation

By Staff Writers, Sydney (AFP), Oct 24, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Pollution_tax_stokes_Australian_inflation_999.html

Carbon Tax: Will Tweedle Dum Snatch Defeat From the Jaws of Victory?

By Marlo Lewis, Forbes, Oct 25, 2012

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/10/25/carbon-tax-will-tweedle-dum-snatch-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory/

EPA and other Regulators on the March

The EPA Is Moving The Goalposts, Even After The Game Has Started

By Merrill Matthews, Forbes, Oct 18, 2012

http://www.forbes.com/sites/merrillmatthews/2012/10/18/the-epa-is-moving-the-goalposts-even-after-the-game-has-started/

Political, legal problems for next president piling up at the EPA

By Mark Tapscott, Washington Examiner, Oct 25, 2012, [H/t Cooler Heads]

http://washingtonexaminer.com/political-legal-problems-for-next-president-piling-up-at-the-epa/article/2511714?utm_source=Washington%20Examiner:%20Opinion%20Digest%20-%2010/26/2012&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Washington%20Examiner:%20Opinion%20Digest#.UI

Levin Legal Group Sues EPA For Records Of Controversial Regs Delayed Until After Election

By David James, CNS News, Oct 23, 2012 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://cnsnews.com/blog/david-james/levin-legal-group-sues-epa-records-controversial-regs-delayed-until-after-election

The EPA?s Planned Destruction of the U.S. Economy

By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Oct 23, 2012

http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-epas-planned-destruction-of-us.html

EPA grapples with climate effects of palm oil in fuel

By Ben Geman, The Hill, Oct 24, 2012

http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/263867-epa-grapples-with-climate-effects-of-palm-oil

[SEPP Comment: To meet US greenhouse standards, EPA will determine permitted palm oil standards!]

EPA anti-energy regulations killing jobs

Bogus green schemes harm Americans

By Paul Driessen, Washington Times, Oct 23, 2012

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/oct/23/epa-anti-energy-regulations-killing-jobs/

Energy Issues ? Non-US

Alberta to monitor oil sands

By Staff Writers, Edmonton, Alberta, (UPI) Oct 19, 2012

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Alberta_to_monitor_oil_sands_999.html

The Green Pipeline: U.S. donors pump hundreds of millions into Canadian groups opposed to the Keystone XL pipeline

By Brian Seasholes, Capital Research, Oct, 2012 [H/t Cooler Heads]

http://www.capitalresearch.org/2012/09/the-green-pipeline-u-s-donors-pump-hundreds-of-millions-into-canadian-groups-opposed-to-the-keystone-xl-pipeline/

Perverse environmentalist oil sands ethics

By Paul Driessen, Canada Free Press, Oct 24, 2012

http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/50548

China rare earths giant halts output for a month

By Staff Writers, Shanghai (AFP), Oct 24, 2012

http://www.spacemart.com/reports/China_rare_earths_giant_halts_output_for_a_month_999.html

Energy Is Everywhere

By Kenneth P. Green, The American, Oct 24, 2012

http://www.american.com/archive/2012/october/energy-is-everywhere

Energy Issues ? US

US may soon become world?s top oil producer

By Jonathan Fahey, AP, Oct 23, 2012

http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/f70471f764144b2fab526d39972d37b3/Article_2012-10-23-US%20Oil%20Boom/id-15afe4569b714cb680b0f3fe2be4fbeb

US to Overtake Saudi Arabia? Skewing the Oil Stats

By Jen Alic, Oil Pirce, Oct 25, 2012

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-to-Overtake-Saudi-Arabia-Skewing-the-Oil-Stats.html

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]

America at Energy Crossroads, Part 2

By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Oct 26, 2012

http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2012/10/26/america-at-energy-crossroads-part-2/

IHS report: Unconventional oil & gas to be economic driver

By Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Fuel Fix, Oct 23, 2012

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2012/10/23/ihs-report-unconventional-oil-gas-to-be-economic-driver/

[SEPP Comment: IHS is a global consulting firm.]

The Myth of Affordable Energy ? Interview with Ed Dolan

By James Stafford, Oil Price, Oct 16, 2012

http://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-Myth-of-Affordable-Energy-Interview-with-Ed-Dolan.html

Return of King Coal?

Powering Buildings ? A Tale of Two Paradigms

By Mark Mills, Energy Facts Weekly, Oct 22, 2012

http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=29bc7d5d85828d574f86c157a&id=254db64c81&e=

[SEPP Comment: Trying to save energy consumption in a data center is vastly different than trying to save energy in a commercial office building.]

Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences

Microbes and Nature

American Academy of Microbiology, 2011 [H/t Dennis Ambler]

FAQ: Microbes and Oil Spills, 2011

[SEPP Comment: Is it not time to develop this natural resource to be available for any future oil spills?]

Nuclear Energy and Fears

Radiation and risk

By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Oct 26, 2012

http://www.scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/radiation-and-risk

[SEPP Comment: To many, the actual deaths from the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami are insignificant compared with the suggested deaths from radiation from the nuclear power plants.]

China to resume nuclear power construction

By Staff Writers, Beijing (UPI), Oct 25, 2012

http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/China_to_resume_nuclear_power_construction_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Construction of plants, already started, never stopped. Now new construction will begin.]

Fuel loading at Ningde 1

The first core of nuclear fuel is being loaded at China?s newest power reactor, Ningde 1 in Fujian province. Construction on the unit began less than four years ago.

By Staff Writers, WNN, Oct 19, 2012

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN_Fuel_loading_at_Ningde_1_1910121.html

[SEPP Comment: From start of construction to operation in less that four years is quite an achievement.]

Queensland lifts uranium mining ban

Uranium mining will be allowed in the Australian state of Queensland after the state government overturned 23 years of prohibition. The state has not produced uranium since 1982.

By Staff Writers, WNN, Oct 22, 2012

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP-Queensland_lifts_uranium_mining_ban-2210127.html

Virginia can mine uranium safely, responsibly

By Jack Spencer and Katie Tubb, Richmond Times-Dispatch, Oct 15, 2012 [H/t Randy Randol]

http://www2.timesdispatch.com/news/oped/2012/oct/15/tdopin02-spencer-and-tubb-virginia-can-mine-uraniu-ar-2282660/

Alternative, Green (?Clean?) Solar and Wind

After Federal Jolt, Clean Energy Seeks New Spark

By John Border, NYT, Oct 23, 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/business/energy-environment/future-of-american-aid-to-clean-energy.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

[SEPP Comment: $90 Billion over 3 years is not enough?]

U.S. Wind Industry Continues to Expand

By Staff, Department of Energy, Oct 23, 2012

http://energy.gov/articles/us-wind-industry-continues-expand

[SEPP Comment: A government agency shamelessly promoting an industry using information from the industry?s lobbying group.]

Study: Wind Generates Electricity When We Need It Least

By Jack Thorlin, Institute for Energy Research, Oct 24, 2012 [H/t Randy Randol]

http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2012/10/24/study-wind-subsidies-disproportionately-produce-electricity-when-we-need-it-least/

[SEPP Comment: The weaknesses of wind power uncovered in Europe and elsewhere applies to the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley as well.]

NRG Gets DOI Lease for Wind Farm Offshore Delaware Coast

By Sonal Patel, Power News, Oct 24, 2012

http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/5080.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=2548950&hq_l=5&hq_v=5e660500d0

[SEPP Comment: Would they deliver the goods in the current forecast of a Frankenstorm?]

Layoffs, failures test Colorado?s ?new energy economy?

By Steve Raabe, Denver Post, Oct 22, 2012 [H/t Cooler Heads]

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_21825181/layoffs-failures-test-colorados-new-energy-economy

Twenty Bad Things About Wind Energy, and Three Reasons Why

By John Droz, Jr, Master Resource, Oct 24, 2012

http://www.masterresource.org/2012/10/20-bad-things-wind-3-reasons-why/

[SEPP Comment: An update on the slogans used to sell wind power. Some of the language is imaginative if not accurate, such as ?component liberation? as a term for a blade flying off.]

Solar Industry Meltdown ? Intersolar China 2012 Tradeshow CANCELLED Due To ?Difficult Market Conditions?!

By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 24, 2012

http://notrickszone.com/2012/10/24/solar-industry-meltdown-intersolar-china-2012-tradeshow-cancelled-due-to-difficult-market-conditions/

[SEPP Comment: Oops!]

Solar power said viable in snowy regions

By Staff Writers, Houghton, Mich, (UPI) Oct 25, 2012

http://www.solardaily.com/reports/Solar_power_said_viable_in_snowy_regions_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Technically viable is significantly different than economically viable.]

Alternative, Green (?Clean?) Energy ? Other

Biodiesel back from the dead as EU drops ILUC factors

By Sonja van Renssen, European Energy Review, Oct 18, 2012 [H/t Anne Debeil]

http://www.europeanenergyreview.eu/site/pagina.php?email=lars.myren@skynet.be&id_mailing=320&toegang=320722549d1751cf3f247855f937b982&id=3908

Commissioners Hedegaard and Oettinger admitted the proposals were ?not perfect? but emphasised the 5% cap on food-based biofuels that did make it into the final proposal. This is supposed to cap conventional biofuel production at current levels. The problem is that this cap is not really a cap, at least not on the production of these biofuels. It is a reporting cap under the EU?s renewable energy directive: member states will only be able to use (and subsidise) food-based biofuels to meet half of a 10% target for renewable energy in transport by 2020.

[SEPP Comment: The clarity of bureaucracy.]

Large-scale production of biofuels made from algae poses sustainability concerns

By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Oct 25, 2012

http://www.biofueldaily.com/reports/Large_scale_production_of_biofuels_made_from_algae_poses_sustainability_concerns_999.html

Health and Science

Bad ?science? from Harvard

By Staff Writer, ACSH, Oct 25, 2012

http://www.acsh.org/bad-science-from-harvard/

[SEPP Comment: Admirable courage to pull back the study immediately before the press conference.]

Replication, Replication, Replication

By Staff Writers, ACSH, Oct 25, 2012

http://www.acsh.org/replication-replication-replication/

Malaria study challenges warmer world predictions

By Shaoni Bhattacharya, New Scientist, Oct 24, 2012 [H/t Climate Change Weekly]

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn22419-malaria-study-challenges-warmer-world-predictions.html

Oh Mann!

Penn State climate professor sues think tank, National Review

By Keith L. Alexander, Washington Post, Oct 23, 2012

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/crime/penn-state-climate-professor-sues-think-tank-national-review/2012/10/23/27b92a86-1d4f-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_story.html

Professor Mann claims to win Nobel Prize; Nobel Committee says he has not

By Thomas Richard, Washington Examiner, Oct 26, 2012 [H/t Cooler Heads]

http://www.examiner.com/article/professor-mann-claims-to-win-nobel-prize-nobel-committee-says-he-has-not

Breaking: Mann has filed suit against NRO (now the laughing begins)

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 23, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/23/breaking-mann-has-filed-suit-against-nro/

Michael Mann ? never fully investigated, thus never exonerated

By Christopher Horner, WUWT, Oct 23, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/23/michael-mann-never-fully-investigated-thus-never-exonerated/

Environmental Industry

Ocean-fertilization project off Canada sparks furore

Bid to boost salmon stocks relied on hotly debated science and dubious carbon credits.

By Jeff Tollefson, Nature, Oct 23, 2012

http://www.nature.com/news/ocean-fertilization-project-off-canada-sparks-furore-1.11631

A Rogue Climate Experiment Outrages Scientists

By Henry Fountain, NYT, Oct 18, 2012 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/science/earth/iron-dumping-experiment-in-pacific-alarms-marine-experts.html?ref=science&_r=0

Other News that May Be of Interest

Water extraction helped trigger deadly quake in Spain: scientists

By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Oct 21, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Water_extraction_helped_trigger_deadly_quake_in_Spain_scientists_999.html

###################################################

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:

Media bozos buy ?cancer bra? hype

By Staff Writers, ACSH, Oct 22, 2012

http://www.acsh.org/media-bozos-buy-cancer-bra-hype/

Speed limits on cargo ships could reduce their pollutants by more than half

By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX) Oct 26, 2012

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Speed_limits_on_cargo_ships_could_reduce_their_pollutants_by_more_than_half_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Sailing ships could pollute less.]

Frankenstorm: God?s Latest Warning?

By Ted Glick, Grist, Oct 26, 2012

http://grist.org/article/frankenstorm-gods-latest-warning/

###################################################

Source: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/29/weekly-climate-and-energy-news-roundup-68/

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Shawn: 'We're not trying to backstab' on 'DWTS'

Adam Taylor / ABC

Shawn Johnson and pro partner Derek Hough danced a romantic rumba to the "Titanic" theme song last week.

By Michael Maloney, TODAY contributor

Each week, Olympian and season eight "Dancing With the Stars" champ Shawn Johnson will be sharing her experiences on "All-Stars" with The Clicker! Look for Q&As, exclusive photos and more from the gold medalist throughout the season as she competes to win her second mirror ball trophy, this time alongside pro Derek Hough.

You can follow us on Twitter?@TODAY_Clicker to get all the latest updates on Shawn's quest for ballroom glory. Shawn is also on Twitter @ShawnJohnson.

The Clicker: How did it feel not having anyone be eliminated last week?
Shawn: I think since we weren?t there the week didn?t feel that different. We shot two shows last Monday and the second one aired on Tuesday. We rehearsed all day on Tuesday. The scores will transfer over to (this) week. The tension was still there. We were still trying to give our best performances!

The Clicker: What reaction did you get to your ?Titanic? themed rumba with Derek?
Shawn: It?s been nothing but positive. I couldn?t have been prouder of the dance. And Derek couldn?t have been prouder of what we did. Even though the judges didn?t necessarily love it, we did.

The Clicker: That seems to be Derek?s philosophy ? do the best dance that will please you and the audience and then let the chips fall where they may with the judges.
Shawn: Definitely; this was about showing the world a different side of me. This wasn?t what people are used to seeing. I stepped out of my comfort zone.

The Clicker: Derek looked like Jack from ?Titanic.?
Shawn: It was scary how similar he looked to Leonardo DiCaprio!

The Clicker: It was great to see how everyone rallied around Melissa Rycroft after her injury last week.
Shawn:?Yes. It?s not a cutthroat show. We?re not trying to backstab people or get them off the show. We genuinely get along. We?re cheering and screaming when someone else is out there dancing. We don?t wish any harm to anyone. When Melissa went down it was like a family member being injured.

The Clicker: When you and Gilles Marini chose the songs you?d do group dances to, Gilles was very excited to get ?Gangnam Style? and Derek appeared less than thrilled to get ?Call Me Maybe.? But you guys ended up doing better.
Shawn: At first, yeah, we wanted "Gangnam Style" because it?s the craze right now. It?s the modern day "Macarena." Ours may not have had the same energy, but once we put it together things started to fall into place. We may not have captured the audience as much, but it was clean and the judges liked it.

The Clicker: Do you agree with Kelly Monaco?s post-dance comments recently where she said the "DWTS" is not really about dancing but about the emotional journey you go on with your partner as you step outside your comfort zone?
Shawn: Yes, definitely. She summed it up the best. It?s not about dancing. It?s about everything else. We all come in here with different career paths looking to find confidence in a world that we?re not comfortable with and finding trust in your partner to take you somewhere you?ve never gone before.

The Clicker: How would you describe the journey you took the first time to the one you?ve had so far this time?
Shawn: I was a lot more reserved the first time mostly because of my age. I hadn?t stepped out into the world that much beyond gymnastics. I was shy and afraid to take risks. I kept to myself more. I wasn?t able to relate to as many people, again, because of my age. This time, I?m letting myself go more. It?s been the most liberating experience I ever had. I give so much of the credit to Derek. I don?t think anyone else could have brought this out of me. Derek is phenomenal. He?s the best out there. His talent is ridiculous. He takes everything so seriously and turns it into a masterpiece.

The Clicker: What?s the theme/dance for tonight??
Shawn: Country, which I?m happy about. I love the Zac Brown Band. All I listen to is country music. We?re doing the cha cha. My last one was great. It was my best dance.

The Clicker: Does that make it easier?
Shawn: Not really. It?s a completely different season. Tonight?s more of a theme. It?s not even relatable but hopefully it will go well!

Watch Shawn perform on "Dancing With the Stars" at 8 p.m. on Monday night on ABC. Plus, join our TV editor, Anna Chan, as she hosts a live chat during each performance show. Sign up for a reminder!

Related content:

More in The Clicker:

Source: http://theclicker.today.com/_news/2012/10/29/14784070-shawn-johnson-were-not-trying-to-backstab-people-on-dancing-with-the-stars?lite

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Infrared vision in a cichlid fish

Public release date: 29-Oct-2012
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Contact: Sebastian A. Baldauf
sbaldauf@evolution.uni-bonn.de
49-228-735-749
University of Bonn

Scientists at the University of Bonn discovered that fish can detect prey using infrared light

Biologists from the University of Bonn have discovered that the cichlid fish Pelvicachromis taeniatus can see in the near infrared range; this was thought to be unlikely until now. Seeing in the infrared range is apparently helping fish to hunt in shallow African rivers. The results will be published in the journal "Naturwissenschaften" and are already available online now.

A research team in the work group of Prof. Dr. T. C. M. Bakker at the Institute for Evolutionary Biology and Ecology, University of Bonn, has been studying the biology of the African cichlid fish Pelvicachromis taeniatus for years.

Researchers conducted a prey choice experiment

Researchers investigated the ability to see in the infrared range using a classical prey choice experiment. P. taeniatus also feeds on small crustaceans, such as freshwater shrimp. These prey animals reflect near infrared radiation. The researchers used this fact to examine the perception of infrared light. In a dark room a prey selection experiment was set up illuminated by infrared lamps. In front of the water basin containing the fish freshwater shrimp were offered in two separate chambers. One of the chambers with the prey was covered with a filter blocking infrared wavelengths. The other chamber was covered with a filter that would let only infrared light pass. "Consequently, the fish were only able to perceive the freshwater shrimp in one chamber in the near infrared range" explains Dr. |Sebastian Baldauf, one of the scientists involved in the study.

Physiologists thought that seeing in the near ir range would be unlikely

The experiment showed that the fish spent more time and were more frequently in front of the chamber that let infrared light pass. "The fish detect their prey based on infrared radiation alone" reports the biologist from the University of Bonn. "Until now, physiologists thought that noise levels in the near-infrared range were too high to allow visual perception." As the experiment has shown, the fish were capable of perceiving prey in a wavelength range above 780 nanometers. It is well-known that snakes can perceive far infrared radiation at longer wavelengths above 2,000 nanometers. "But they don't use their eyes for this purpose; instead they have a heat-sensitive pit organ," says Dr. Baldauf. Human eyes are not capable of seeing infrared radiation.

Seeing infrared is useful in the natural habitat

The advantage of the fish's ability to see infrared may become obvious when you look at its natural habitat. The shallow rivers of West Africa have a relatively large amount of infrared radiation. "That's exactly why it makes sense to use infrared cues for detecting prey organisms," explains Dr. Baldauf. "It is a clear selective advantage if you can perceive additional signals that others cannot perceive." It is quite likely that other animals also have evolved a perception of near-infrared radiation, e.g. for hunting or orientation, such as other fishes or birds. The researchers from the University of Bonn now want to study more closely the physiology of infrared vision, and to what extent infrared radiation is relevant in other contexts.

Infrared radiation in partner selection?

When performing color measurements on these fish the researchers found that certain regions of the cichlid body reflect the light in the near-infared range. "We found that females reflect infrared radiation from their belly region, and males from their fins" says Dr. Baldauf. The female belly is important for mate choice, and the fins are displayed during aggressive encounters between males. "Perhaps near-infrared signals play a role in visual communication in this species" says the biologist. "And that's what we additionally would like to study in further experiments."

###

Publication: Denis Meuthen, Ingolf P. Rick, Timo Thnken, Sebastian A. Baldauf: Visual prey detection by near-infrared cues in a fish, "Naturwissenschaften", DOI: 10.1007/s00114-012-0980-7

Contact:

Dr. Sebastian A. Baldauf
Institut fr Evolutionsbiologie und kologie
Ph. +49 228/735749
Email: sbaldauf@evolution.uni-bonn.de

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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Infrared vision in a cichlid fish

Public release date: 29-Oct-2012
[ | E-mail |

Share ]

Contact: Sebastian A. Baldauf
sbaldauf@evolution.uni-bonn.de
49-228-735-749
University of Bonn

Scientists at the University of Bonn discovered that fish can detect prey using infrared light

Researchers conducted a prey choice experiment

Physiologists thought that seeing in the near ir range would be unlikely

Seeing infrared is useful in the natural habitat

Infrared radiation in partner selection?

###

Publication: Denis Meuthen, Ingolf P. Rick, Timo Thnken, Sebastian A. Baldauf: Visual prey detection by near-infrared cues in a fish, "Naturwissenschaften", DOI: 10.1007/s00114-012-0980-7

Contact:

Dr. Sebastian A. Baldauf
Institut fr Evolutionsbiologie und kologie
Ph. +49 228/735749
Email: sbaldauf@evolution.uni-bonn.de

[ | E-mail |

Share ]

AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-10/uob-ivi102912.php

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You Don't Have to Be Crazy To Work Here | According To Hoyt

So, how does one become a writer?? The long-delayed post today ? because I had a routine doctor?s checkup ? gave me time to come back and look at your comments, and we can all agree that a degree in creative writing is about as useful as a meringue hammer.? At least I hope we all agree, because I?m sure of this.

In fact, what little I took in terms of creative writing in school probably hindered my writing commercial fiction.? It?s sort of looking at things the wrong way.? Your Creative Writing professor might have been ecstatic at the bit of symbolism in which you dress a character all in white to symbolize purity, but the reader is probably not even going to register it consciously, and if your character all-in-white proceeds to do nothing much that?s interesting, then well? The reader won?t be happy.

Mostly what the reader wants is to experience emotions.? If along with it you can backload some stuff to make the reader think, and if your reader is a thinking sort of person, bonus.? But mostly the reader wants to experience something and ?emotions? is the common denominator, atop of which you add the peculiar ?cookies? of each genre.? So, say, for romance, you have to have ? romantic stuff and tension between the couple; for SF (depending on subgenre) cool stuff like robots and space exploration; for fantasy everything from LOTR plus some; for urban fantasy shifters and vamps and hot chics (or cute guys) fighting them.? However if all those things don?t contribute to the emotional experience, you got nothing.

While from the critics end? well? they?re looking for symbolism and meaning and wondrous stuff like allusions to other books? yeah.? And most college courses teach you to be critics not writers.

So ? you can?t learn it in college.? What makes a writer a writer?

Well, you don?t have to be crazy to work here, but it helps.

Most of us started out telling ourselves stories.? Or we told younger siblings stories.? (I only had cats younger than I, and they were notoriously averse to standing still while I told them stories.)? Or, when we were older, we told our peers stories (guilty!)

I wrote my first ?novel? at six.? It was ten handwritten pages and Enid Blyton Famous Five Fanfic.? (Hey, one does what one can.)

By highschool I was writing 20k word ?novels? of very, very bad Clifford Simak pastiche.

And that?s part of what makes you a writer.? Like the artists of old who copied the works of the masters, almost all of us started out by writing things in imitation of those authors whose work had moved us the most.

At some point we realize it?s not quite ours, and we start experimenting.? For me that was my twenties, which generated a never end of REALLY BAD experiments, including some that can never be buried DEEP enough.? In fact, my kids are under notice if they find and publish any of them, I?ll come back and haunt them into the next century.

But in the middle of the experiments, my taste, formed by an awful lot of reading, picked this and that that worked, and that other thing that sparkled, and?? And I started to get a clue.

In my early thirties I had the revelation that I was writing for a reader.? Yeah, I know.? I?m slow that way.? Now, I had no idea who ?my reader? was or how he functioned, but I had an idea that I would write for the reader I?d like to attract.

And then it became sort of like playing chess on both sides, and things started to work.? That mind set is absolutely necessary to know when you?re too slow, when you?re too fast, when you?ve skipped something essential?

So ? it?s hard to acquire, though at this point it?s second nature.? (Posting at austen.com and getting comments as I wrote really helped that sense of what the readers were getting or not.)

And there it is.? You become a writer by:

1-????? Copying the masters.

2-????? Learning to go beyond copy

3-????? Reading an awful lot

4-????? Learning to write for readers.

Sounds easy, right?? Right.? And you?re wondering where the part comes where you suffer for your art, aren?t you?

Trust me, there?s suffering enough in there.? Like most simple plans, the difficulty is in the execution.

Now ? go work.

Source: http://accordingtohoyt.com/2012/10/29/you-dont-have-to-be-crazy-to-work-here/

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